What is your view?

I traded a few races tonight, won the first 6 races up to a tune of around £6 up so it's all good.

Until the final race, i was baffled by the markets reflection to the on course odds on the US markets.

I'm trading a horse which is around evens on course, at about 2.2 or 2.3 on betfair so you would think that a back is sensible, but looking at my picture you can realise that it wasn't. Betfair rose to a massive price pushing my red further and deeper in, i traded out with about 2 mins till the race went off (ignore the timer) at a horrifying exit price of about 30 quid down. Only to see the horse go on and win. The start price was evens.


So my question is this, what would you do:

Take on the bet, knowing you have good odds on a horse that SHOULD be evens.

OR

Exit immediately and take the loss on the chin like i did.

I took the loss before the horses ran off, telling myself as i took the exit position that this is a good move irrelevant of the outcome. Its the way i need to behave and over the course of time it will pay off, but today it kicked me square in the b*ll*cks and hurt hard, very hard upto the point of anger.


Should i reassure myself with the fact i never gambled, i could have won a bet but instead lost a trade which is the way to go. That is a strange positive, i could be £100 down.

But did i make a good move or not? A horse in the US is at evens and i can back at 3.2/1, is this danger or a window to exploit and i was on the wrong side?

Its changed my view on the US markets, my dad always phrases "a new t-shirt worn" when something goes totally ass end up, you learn something more valuable than the loss hit you with.

Very unhappy with tonight, however its why i called my blog what it is.

All a test.

Feeling Pretty Off.

Feeling pretty ill tonight, not too sure what it was from, so thought I’d lay off the revising and have a little dabble with the trading again.

Things are continuing to progress alright, mixing it up with stakes ranging between £10 and £50 if it’s a short priced favourite. Confidence is rising and I'm becoming more selective about my entries and exits points.

The American markets have much more variation in movement so if you can get your head around whats about to happen you can make good trades, there isn’t much congestion. Instead of aiming to eventually venture into the UK markets of an evening, I think I’ll be sticking with the US markets now and improve more on them.

I’ll prob be leaving the trading now till after my exam, then I’ll give it a real hard bash and see what I can actually get out of these, I don't earn a great wage so it could turn into a nice little earner on the side!

Heellooooooooo!

Hellooooooooooo!

Well I’ve had to have a break from trading due to revising for an exam, its miles away on the 9th of June but pretty tough, so it takes priority.

I’ve traded another handful of races tonight with a mixture of stakes ranging from £10 to £50 and it’s been great! Instead of taking positions then having the Muppet smash through me and take my dosh, I wait for him to appear and time my entry points around him! Sounds like I paid attention to my previous point of every problem has a gift waiting, if I can’t beat him his tactics I may as well utilise them!

I can’t figure out what makes ladders move, after seeing horses odds on ATR US markets priced around 3-1 and the Betfair ladders show 6.00 you’d think a steam would occur, but if anything the opposite happens. But there must be indications somewhere that the more skilled traders notice that the novices don't.

There’s so many wedge’s being lobbed about too, you can see the influence a wedge can have on a market from the image below, why the hell it happens I doubt anyone knows. Probably some miffed off rich kid getting revenge on his parents using their credit card.


Anyways, I’ll post up occasionally until after my exam, the plan is:

1. Do exam on the 9th
2. Drink enough booze to kill a horse
3. Recover from hangover from hell
4. Get back into trading


Laters!

Quick Post

Just a quick point of note after my earlier post from today:

On more than one occassion today a large amount of money was smashed through the market, around 1k, but not placed onto the ladder but literally smashed through it.

After my blunders from before i thought i'd trade a few more races and was trading a favourite using £50 stakes. Some total mentalist smashed 1k through the market and took a range of prices from about 2.00 all the way down to 1.80. but why not just leave it in the ladder and get constantly matched at a much better price? It cant be a trader or someone with knowledge of betfair, if it is then they're throwing easy money away by jumping in so hard.

Its nice when this happens because if you have money out of the trading zone and in nice positions it gets taken.

Annoying

Annoying is the theme of the day, what started off as a great few races traded ended up in total disaster, mostly due to the muppet being back in action with his whopping wedges that push the markets all over the show.

I’ve been trading looking at the price range, trying to get matched at the top of the price bands and paying close attention to what the ATR site says the odds are and comparing them to the odds on BF. I've also upped my stakes to £10 now to try and make myself more disciplined.

But my arch nemesis muppet jumps in with massive amounts of cash totally controlling the market and somehow always pushing it against me. I backed at 4.0 as the ATR odds were 5/2 and then the muppet appears on the lay side with about 750, the money was pushed further and further out and i took more at 4.2 & 4.5 thinking that it will eventually come back but no. Then I trade out at a massive 5.0 and the ATR odds hadn’t changed at all.

I should try and think about how to use it in my favour

“Every problem has a gift for you in its hands” Richard Bach, American Writer

But when I don't know how long it will stay in the market, I could get myself into an even worse situation if i trade using it. Suppose I should look out for major blagg money and just avoid. After tonight its Bradders 0 – 1 The Muppet.

Not much Discipline!

Well my trading has been a bag of confusion and more school boy errors lately. I’ve been putting off blogging as something always goes wrong which I'm annoyed at which I feel I'm not in control of, when the bottom line is I am.

I'm still trading too keen, mostly by getting involved when I don't have live feed which I swore I wouldn’t. The US markets can go off at any time at all, so when the timer is over 0.00 or even close to it I should only be watching the trading and not dabbling myself, it’s like having a gigantic “DO NOT PUSH” red button right in front of me, I'm going to want to push it!


But I'm still learning, and every time I win or lose I ask myself why, what went right or what went wrong. I have to remember that that's the aim for now.

Some points of note I’ve learnt over the last few days:

In the US markets a wedge of blagg money can hold it in any place, one race had 750 sitting at 4.5 when its surrounded by 10’s and 20’s so it was obviously blagg. As I thought nobody wanted to touch it, I traded the other horse and looked back after about 30 seconds and it’s gone, with the price down to 3.5. It’s too risky to take a bite out of it as it can have such an influence, if it’s YOUR money I'm taking about then please SOD OFF!!!!

Exit positions must always be decided, I made a great entry and watched my green jump up to about £2 off a £10 stake. Feeling well happy with my entry I just watched and watched, simple quick reverse bounce occurs and I can see my green zone being chomped away at, I felt like I had lost money! I ended up trading out for a poo 9p, so I must always be happy with what I get. Holding onto a rising green not only leaves me out of trading as I'm only watching, but affects your frame of mind when you see the reversal.

And bounces can happen at any time, maybe that's something I will concentrate on, instead of trying to get onto a swing I’ll try and catch the bounce instead!

Many thanks to all that have read my blog so far, hopefully as I improve so will my stakes and it’ll get more interesting.

Back Again........Again!

Back yet again! There have been a number of hiccups with me getting into trading:

• 17 stitches into my hand literally a day or two before I subscribed to the Sports Trading Journey,
  

• 3 months of physio, on my right hand which I trade with,

• Being unable to figure out why my Geeks Toy wouldn’t connect and taking about a week to get around it,

• Refusing to trade without live feed, that took another few days,
  

• Then my skybox blew!

All is up and running now so can concentrate on trading as often, although not very heavily, as possible. Just want to do a decent hand full of races every nite and try to get in the “zone” a little more when I'm in practice. Another alright day with the trading and I'm getting good at entering, then not bothering about the result, but watching what happens with the surrounding information and reacting when i feel it is right, in profit or not. Already think I'm picking up small tweaks you could say. A few years ago after attending Peter Webb’s Bet Angel course my results were all over the place with zero consistency, now I’ve hit 11 races in a row in profit and most of them have been genuine good moves without luck, I think!!

Live feed definitely has an impact on what your watching in terms of the info on GT. There was a horse trading at around 2.5 on the exchange and 5/4 on the betting lines. The commentator starts complimenting the horse and how it has a good chance of winning and over the next few moments the horse was smashed down to its lowest trading price of 2.2 which is 5/4. I'm still partially amazed about how certain prices just won’t get touched, the horse flew down to 2.2 so fast but then stopped immediately. I wonder how many active traders there are out there. I'm starting to think that the key is not to figure out what to do next, but what I SHOULD do, If I think like a trader. Maybe that's why:

• Big clumps of money sometimes don't get touched because other traders are weary of it

• Price bands sometimes don't get broken because traders don't want to
  

• Steams happen so fast as a small bit of info is released which gives the pro’s an inkling

All of which i'll be thinking about next time i trade

RANT OVER! BRADDERS BACK IN ACTION!

Until my dog eats my t.v.

Clean Sheet!

Well my skybox has blown out, so as I swore that I’d never trade without live feed my evening racing is again on hold. Managed to get a good few races today at Doncaster and Kempton and I'm very happy with my results!

Finally hit a clean sheet and brought in a 6/6 result! I'm starting to watch what’s happening around me more instead of entering the market as often. When you place a back/lay you concentrate so hard on hoping it goes the right way, then debating whether or not to exit and then the old “well if it goes down a few more ticks my profit goes up by so much” but you’re not learning anything. With stakes the size that I'm using I should enter and then watch what’s unfolding in the market, otherwise I won’t be able to recognise the Déjà vu situations that I can profit from in the future.

The point I'm trying to make is that for now, making profits now is the second priority, understanding the markets is the main aim, I can’t let the feelings I get when I'm trading to get in the way of experience. Wining 50p off a £2 stake sounds good but if you learnt nothing in the process then it was pointless.

So I'm a happy chappy after my trading today, and looking forward to hopefully trading another 6-10 races tomorrow. I'm also upping my stakes to between £2 and £10 pending what the horses odds are, this also ups my concentration and makes me be more selective.

The Muppet!

I'm still getting annoyed with the American racing, even though now I have live feed. Tonight I found that some total Muppet of a trader was slamming around 3-4k wedges and just letting it sit there in the back/lay column, it has such an impact on the market and can push a price all over the show. His bet ended up getting matched (well 3k of it) and that makes me wonder if someone was watching him trying to catch the Muppet out?? Feels strange realising that all the numbers on the screen relate to separate traders positions and we’re all out competing against each other.


The second thing which puzzled me was this:


Now I’ve heard of resistance points but isn’t this a bit extreme? 5k is matched at 1.20 but not even a quid is matched one tick below? At the end of the race the bookies odds of 1/5 showed up so it could be that. Next time I see that I’ll test placing a large lay at 1.20 and try to nick a tick or two from above.

Overall I'm still getting caught in big price gaps and mistaking blagg money for real and the other way around, I’ve noticed that my losses are so much bigger than the wins, this needs sorting out quick so I’ll be thinking of ways around it.

"Onwards and Upwards" i must remember that its a tough game. lessons learnt and a few more races done, I’ll try to trade tomorrow night for another 6 (limiting the amount I find is helpful as it keeps my concentration up, plus I'm aiming to hit 6/6 in profit then I’ll up it to 8, nice short term goal)

Bradders over and OUT!

I'm Back!

After a few days I’ve finally got hold of the ATR channel so i can get back into trading full swing.

I'm going to spend tonight just watching a few races to get myself used to it, and tomorrow I’ll be trading for hopefully about 2 or so hours. For now a few quick questions:

What is the delay from the off? I’ve noticed sometimes that the channel goes to the race very close to the off so I need to know of any delay at all. If I'm unsure as to how long till the race starts and the timer hits 0.00 I’ll be exiting immediately, if I have pictures then I’ll give say approx 30 seconds till the off until I exit.

What does M/L stand for? At first I thought it was the odds but it didn’t look right, now I see that ATR show these values quite a lot but I don't know what they mean?

When it states the exchange price what does this relate to, is it the betair markets price?

Any other tips or bits of advice regarding the US markets? Based on my tiny little knowledge bank so far I’ll be waiting a lot longer to get the fluidity up to a higher rate and avoid situations with large price gaps.

So now everything is in place to give me at least an equal chance to be successful and I’ll be concentrating on trading as much as possible, that's the best way to go about this game. Instead of studying articles, other blogs, tips or techniques that the internet talks about my main aim is to trade as much as I can, learn the basics and try to spot certain Déjà Vu situations and capitalise on them.

As "Big" John McCarthy would say : "LETS GET IT ONNN COME ONNN!"

First Steps

Another couple of races traded tonight, although I'm feeling very tired after a long week so probably wasn’t at my most alert.

Hand full of races on the US markets and two at Wolverhampton. I prefer the US markets as there’s more movement in them, I already feel that if your patient with your entry and look at how much weight is behind each position then eventually more obvious trades become available. But the randomness is still off putting for me, and the presence of spoof money has such a control over the market due to its size, no one seems to even want to take a bite out of it!

There was around a 600 wedge sitting on the back side (I use inversed ladders, so back is on the right) at around 6.0. As soon as it was taken out the back side rose up to 7.0, then a slight reverse occurred down to about 6.6. But why are people so reluctant to take a bite out of it? they simply wouldn't even touch it! Is it because the American markets are all full of novice traders learning the ropes? I would have loved to take a smidge out of it but that was my fall down trading on Wednesday, as it turned out to be real and go right against me!

Trading at Wolverhampton wasn’t as much fun, clogged up ladders and money flying out quicker than Hugh Heffner can blow at a champagne party doesn’t give me as much time to determine if its a good entry point or not, suppose that knowledge will come with time.

I have also figured that subscribing to ATR is a must, I simply need to have live feed, its too annoying KNOWING that the race won’t go off at 0.00 but then having to guess at what time it will. I was caught out at one race, lucky enough however the lay came in, but the inability to trade in running at US races means it’s totally random when my trades turn into irreversible bets, not the way to progress.




If anyone can relate to any parts of my post, please do comment and share your views.

Off to see a medium at the Trafford centre tomorrow, if she mentions anything about Betfair trading I’ll run away screaming!

School Boy Error

Well then the first night of trading is over, and you could slap a banner on my head saying "SCHOOL BOY ERROR" as I produced what I guess most weak young traders produce!

Started off well with good thought towards entries, taking my time to wait for money which I deemed to be out of position to pop up for me to nab, nice small profits coming in and stealing a few ticks here and there, then:

BOOM!!!!!!!! KING IDIOT BRADDERS STRIKES AGAIN!

Caught trying to trade the evens marker, I got stung bad. Misjudged a wedge in the ladder for spoof money when now I think it was actually real. Predicted a swing in the wrong direction and watched my red get larger and larger as it slowly forced the markets further away from my green zone! Eventually thought sod this, redded up and re entered in the opposite way only to see the money leave and the swing reverse and I was again on the wrong side!


Lesson for the day: Green up faster and try to avoid jumping ships at the wrong time!

Madness thinking I traded 6, profited on 5 and I’m down on the day!

Hello Everyone!

Thought I’d write a introduction to my blog before I get things underway.

Like many other bloggers around I'm going to document my progress throughout trying to be able to profit from trading on the Betfair markets. I’ve previously traded on them over the last couple of months but never really applied myself to trying to understand the reasons behind the movements. So it’s easy to guess that my success has been very limited!

There have been many who started blogs to monitor how they improve, some have been met with brick walls and others have slowly progressed into being able to profit enough to do this for a living. Of course I’d like to be one of the more successful traders but one thing I’ve definitely learnt so far is that the future in relation to trading is a very, very unpredictable one, so I’ll take each day’s trading as it comes.

The main aim of my blog is simply to try and gain some willpower with trading, to concentrate and be as disciplined as possible. I understand that I am going to lose before I win, and that the way to improve is to negate loses rather than milking the wins.

I’ll be trading the American markets of a night initially until I get a better feeling to the general movements and have a better knowledge base. Then hopefully move onto the English markets and then who knows, I hate working 8-5 so if I can do well at this then I could give that the boot out the backdoor!

Starting bank will be a basic £50 will stakes of £2, I’ll up my bank and stake accordingly with how well I adapt. My stake size won’t gradually increase, once I feel comfortable I’ll use something around the £25 region and then make my next decision once I’ve reached that point.

Thanks for reading all, please subscribe to my blog and feel free to post any questions!

Bradders