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Until the final race, i was baffled by the markets reflection to the on course odds on the US markets.
I'm trading a horse which is around evens on course, at about 2.2 or 2.3 on betfair so you would think that a back is sensible, but looking at my picture you can realise that it wasn't. Betfair rose to a massive price pushing my red further and deeper in, i traded out with about 2 mins till the race went off (ignore the timer) at a horrifying exit price of about 30 quid down. Only to see the horse go on and win. The start price was evens.
So my question is this, what would you do:
Take on the bet, knowing you have good odds on a horse that SHOULD be evens.
OR
Exit immediately and take the loss on the chin like i did.
I took the loss before the horses ran off, telling myself as i took the exit position that this is a good move irrelevant of the outcome. Its the way i need to behave and over the course of time it will pay off, but today it kicked me square in the b*ll*cks and hurt hard, very hard upto the point of anger.
Should i reassure myself with the fact i never gambled, i could have won a bet but instead lost a trade which is the way to go. That is a strange positive, i could be £100 down.
But did i make a good move or not? A horse in the US is at evens and i can back at 3.2/1, is this danger or a window to exploit and i was on the wrong side?
Its changed my view on the US markets, my dad always phrases "a new t-shirt worn" when something goes totally ass end up, you learn something more valuable than the loss hit you with.
Very unhappy with tonight, however its why i called my blog what it is.
All a test.
Bradders, you did the right thing trading your position, I would have done that to.
ReplyDeleteIn hindsight not the best thing to do on that occasion but yeah it would have been a whole lot worse if the horse didn't win.
Since starting trading once I hedge for a profit/loss I don't look back to see which horse won, cos I would be tempted to do more stupid things like let a trade go in-play etc.
Speak laters.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteAt my opinion, coz you backed at 2.22 first and its goes against you, you should exit at 2.34 rather then making 1 more bet back, that is just worsted it :), I'm not trading the us so much in the last time, so I don't know if its
changed a lot from before, but I had some simple rules for the especially US, 1 of them is, never make a second same bet before you matched it (the us could be very unstable so be very carefully with them), its very simple if you play with 50 then play with 50 not double it from once (you will just double your loss in the most case, 50% cases you will double the loss, 50% case you will make a small profits like usually, so its very bad at my opinion in any case), especially not if its goes against you.
but again, if you already make a mistake, ok take a loss, you will learn something. coz you are a trader not a gambler, don't gamble. its again very simple, if you'd gamble you would risked 100, this way your loss was just 30.
and from gamblers eyes, it would be a very bad bet also!!there was 60k matched pretty much for us, mostly layed, so the more realistic bet would be around 3, you had a very bad bet for the long time and you would fail in the long time at me. the horse won, was just a luck with an 1/3 chance, of course he was still the fav or the second but with an 1/3 chance and that's all.
if you want add and follow me, my blog is http://www.aritrader.blogspot.com/ , and I mostly do a greyhounds and the us (in the last time poorly the us, coz I was little feeling that I losing time with them, coz there is 2-3 races at the same time, but I bought 1 more monitor and UPS at last, so I planning to do much more US's from now on :)