What is your view?

I traded a few races tonight, won the first 6 races up to a tune of around £6 up so it's all good.

Until the final race, i was baffled by the markets reflection to the on course odds on the US markets.

I'm trading a horse which is around evens on course, at about 2.2 or 2.3 on betfair so you would think that a back is sensible, but looking at my picture you can realise that it wasn't. Betfair rose to a massive price pushing my red further and deeper in, i traded out with about 2 mins till the race went off (ignore the timer) at a horrifying exit price of about 30 quid down. Only to see the horse go on and win. The start price was evens.


So my question is this, what would you do:

Take on the bet, knowing you have good odds on a horse that SHOULD be evens.

OR

Exit immediately and take the loss on the chin like i did.

I took the loss before the horses ran off, telling myself as i took the exit position that this is a good move irrelevant of the outcome. Its the way i need to behave and over the course of time it will pay off, but today it kicked me square in the b*ll*cks and hurt hard, very hard upto the point of anger.


Should i reassure myself with the fact i never gambled, i could have won a bet but instead lost a trade which is the way to go. That is a strange positive, i could be £100 down.

But did i make a good move or not? A horse in the US is at evens and i can back at 3.2/1, is this danger or a window to exploit and i was on the wrong side?

Its changed my view on the US markets, my dad always phrases "a new t-shirt worn" when something goes totally ass end up, you learn something more valuable than the loss hit you with.

Very unhappy with tonight, however its why i called my blog what it is.

All a test.

Feeling Pretty Off.

Feeling pretty ill tonight, not too sure what it was from, so thought I’d lay off the revising and have a little dabble with the trading again.

Things are continuing to progress alright, mixing it up with stakes ranging between £10 and £50 if it’s a short priced favourite. Confidence is rising and I'm becoming more selective about my entries and exits points.

The American markets have much more variation in movement so if you can get your head around whats about to happen you can make good trades, there isn’t much congestion. Instead of aiming to eventually venture into the UK markets of an evening, I think I’ll be sticking with the US markets now and improve more on them.

I’ll prob be leaving the trading now till after my exam, then I’ll give it a real hard bash and see what I can actually get out of these, I don't earn a great wage so it could turn into a nice little earner on the side!

Heellooooooooo!

Hellooooooooooo!

Well I’ve had to have a break from trading due to revising for an exam, its miles away on the 9th of June but pretty tough, so it takes priority.

I’ve traded another handful of races tonight with a mixture of stakes ranging from £10 to £50 and it’s been great! Instead of taking positions then having the Muppet smash through me and take my dosh, I wait for him to appear and time my entry points around him! Sounds like I paid attention to my previous point of every problem has a gift waiting, if I can’t beat him his tactics I may as well utilise them!

I can’t figure out what makes ladders move, after seeing horses odds on ATR US markets priced around 3-1 and the Betfair ladders show 6.00 you’d think a steam would occur, but if anything the opposite happens. But there must be indications somewhere that the more skilled traders notice that the novices don't.

There’s so many wedge’s being lobbed about too, you can see the influence a wedge can have on a market from the image below, why the hell it happens I doubt anyone knows. Probably some miffed off rich kid getting revenge on his parents using their credit card.


Anyways, I’ll post up occasionally until after my exam, the plan is:

1. Do exam on the 9th
2. Drink enough booze to kill a horse
3. Recover from hangover from hell
4. Get back into trading


Laters!