Until the final race, i was baffled by the markets reflection to the on course odds on the US markets.
I'm trading a horse which is around evens on course, at about 2.2 or 2.3 on betfair so you would think that a back is sensible, but looking at my picture you can realise that it wasn't. Betfair rose to a massive price pushing my red further and deeper in, i traded out with about 2 mins till the race went off (ignore the timer) at a horrifying exit price of about 30 quid down. Only to see the horse go on and win. The start price was evens.
So my question is this, what would you do:
Take on the bet, knowing you have good odds on a horse that SHOULD be evens.
OR
Exit immediately and take the loss on the chin like i did.
I took the loss before the horses ran off, telling myself as i took the exit position that this is a good move irrelevant of the outcome. Its the way i need to behave and over the course of time it will pay off, but today it kicked me square in the b*ll*cks and hurt hard, very hard upto the point of anger.
Should i reassure myself with the fact i never gambled, i could have won a bet but instead lost a trade which is the way to go. That is a strange positive, i could be £100 down.
But did i make a good move or not? A horse in the US is at evens and i can back at 3.2/1, is this danger or a window to exploit and i was on the wrong side?
Its changed my view on the US markets, my dad always phrases "a new t-shirt worn" when something goes totally ass end up, you learn something more valuable than the loss hit you with.
Very unhappy with tonight, however its why i called my blog what it is.
All a test.